The website for An Inconvenient Truth provides the basics facts about the science of climate change. Watch the trailer for film. Give the DVD to your friends this holiday season. Commissioned by the British government, the economist Stern published on October 30th his study evaluating the economic consequences of global warming. He writes: "The scientific… More »
My Notes
Reflections On “The Long Tail” – Give me Good Data!
A few days ago, I came across a very positive review of The Long Tail, a new book by Wired Maganize writer Chris Anderson. The book's main thesis is that "the future of commerce and culture isn't in hits, the high-volume head of a traditional demand curve, but in what used to be regarded as… More »
Knowledge and the Wealth of Nations: A Story of Economic Discovery
David Warsh tell the story of how the idea of increasing returns that was already present in Adam’s Smith’s Wealth of Nations transformed academic economics in the 1980s. Read Paul Krugam’s review in the New York Times.
Malcom Gladwell Reviews Charles Tilly’s New Book “WHY”
Gladwell writes: In "Why?" (Princeton; $24.95), the Columbia University scholar Charles Tilly sets out to make sense of our reasons for giving reasons. In the tradition of the legendary sociologist Erving Goffman, Tilly seeks to decode the structure of everyday social interaction, and the result is a book that forces readers to reexamine everything from… More »
The Essential Drucker: The Best of Sixty Years of Peter Drucker’s Essential Writings on Management
One of the things that made Peter Drucker such a superb writer on management was his intense and wide ranging curiosity about everything in the world and his keen eye for the essential aspects of reality. Unlike many other people who paid with their life for not wanting to see reality, Drucker, for example, extrapolated from what Hitler had said in the years before becoming Chancellor of Germany in 1933 and left for England the moment Hitler rose to power. Drucker died a few days ago at age 95, but many of his insights are as valid as ever. Drucker’s writings have been edited into one book a few years ago, which is available electronically on Kindle. The value of the book lies not so much in giving concrete instructions about what you should do as a manger but in making you think about your own situation. Here are some of the key insights, the foremost being that management is about human beings.
Even the Best Cannot Predict the Future
It is very useful to recognize that the social world is too complex to predict well what will succeed and what will fail. Those who think they know with great certainty what will succeed run the danger of overinvesting in their pet scenarios. What is the lesson? Just like with stocks, we should always have a portfolio of beliefs about the future, reducing the risk of getting stuck with the wrong scenarios.
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
–Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.”
–Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949
“I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year.”
–The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957
Who Says Elephants Can’t Dance: Inside IBM’s Historic Turnaround
In the early 1990s, IBM was in danger of going bankrupt. Loius Gerstner was called in to turn the company around. Anyone who is trying to change a formerly successful orgazation will benefit from reading Gerstner's thoughts on change management. Beware: the book starts out slow, turning off many readers. But after the first 20… More »
The Power of Richness II: Exploring Qualitative Research Methods
Inspired by the large number of participants at the "The Power of Richness: The Why, When, Where and How of Qualitative Research Methods" PDW in Honolulu, Diana Day and I (Peter Murmann) decided to organize a follow-up workshop on qualitative methods at the academy meeting in Atlanta. The workshop will again have a stellar group… More »
Project on the Competitiveness of Firms in the Global Paper & Pulp Industry, 1805-2005
Together with two Finish scholars, Juha-Anti Lamberg and Jari Ojala, I started a comparative study of the paper and pulp industry. Human beings have been making paper from various raw materials for thousands of years. But in 1804 a Frenchman invented a continous paper machine revolutionized the manufacturing and started the modern paper making industry.
The goal of our project is to study shifts in competitive advantage from one country to the next and from firm to firm during the last 200 years. We are starting our comparative analysis looking at Britain, Germany, Finland and Sweden. Our long-term plan is to study all the major paper producing countries in the word. If you are interested in participating in this study, contact us.
The Freedom Tower Case: Why is group decision making not better individual decisions
Individual human beings have limited skills, knowledge, and expertise can get carried away by emotions when making decisions. One would think that involving multiple people in a decision could overcome the limitations of individual decision making but social psycholgoists have long known that groups have their own limitations. The New York Times published a pertinent article on how a comittee came up with the redesigned Freedom Tower that architectual critics find dissappointing given the grandeur of the originial proposal.
